Marlins at Padres
Last play · José Azocar grounds out, first baseman Jake Burger to pitcher Tanner Scott.
Win probability
Padres0%
MIA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 1 SD
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ha-Seong Kim homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — +15% Padres
9Nick Fortes grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez. Otto Lopez scores.9–1
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Otto Lopez scores.8–1
6Jesús Sánchez homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.7–1
5Vidal Bruján singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Nick Gordon scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.6–1
5Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Jake Burger scores.5–1
5Jake Burger singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Josh Bell scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.4–1
3Ha-Seong Kim homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
3Otto Lopez reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Manny Machado. Josh Bell scores. Nick Gordon to 3rd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
