Marlins at Padres
Last play · Nick Gordon strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +17% Padres
8Donovan Solano doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Gordon. Manny Machado scores.0–4
5Jurickson Profar singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Gordon. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.0–3
1Jurickson Profar homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
