D-backs at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Padres0%
AZ 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 9 – 3 SD
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kevin Newman scores. Corbin Carroll scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd. (inning 2) — -25% D-backs
4Eugenio Suárez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Jake McCarthy to 2nd.9–3
4Christian Walker singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ketel Marte scores.8–3
3Jurickson Profar homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.7–3
2Luis Campusano singles on a line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Donovan Solano scores. David Peralta to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.7–2
2Jake McCarthy homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.7–1
2Lourdes Gurriel Jr. doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Ketel Marte scores. Joc Pederson scores.5–1
2Joc Pederson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kevin Newman scores. Corbin Carroll scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.3–1
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (12) on a line drive to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














