D-backs at Padres
Last play · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -155
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — +9% Padres
8Donovan Solano singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Corbin Carroll. José Azocar scores.3–10
8Jurickson Profar doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Pavin Smith. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Luis Campusano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–9
8Luis Campusano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Pavin Smith. Jackson Merrill scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.3–6
7Lourdes Gurriel Jr. homers (9) on a line drive to left field.3–5
7Ketel Marte homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Corbin Carroll scores.2–5
6Ha-Seong Kim homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. David Peralta scores.0–5
4Luis Campusano singles on a line drive to center fielder Corbin Carroll, deflected by left fielder Jake McCarthy. Ha-Seong Kim scores.0–3
1Jurickson Profar homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














