Brewers at Padres
Last play · William Contreras grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Padres favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Donovan Solano scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 4) — +29% Padres
9Brice Turang hits a grand slam (5) to left field. Rhys Hoskins scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Jake Bauers scores.4–6
7Kyle Higashioka homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Ha-Seong Kim scores.0–6
4Ha-Seong Kim homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
4Jackson Merrill homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Donovan Solano scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














