Brewers at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rhys Hoskins doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder José Azocar. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 9) — -44% Brewers
9Jake Cronenworth homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.6–7
9Rhys Hoskins doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder José Azocar. Jake Bauers scores.6–6
8Brice Turang singles on a line drive to left fielder David Peralta. Joey Ortiz scores. Blake Perkins to 2nd.4–6
7Jurickson Profar doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Christian Yelich. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–6
5Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.3–5
5Willy Adames homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores.3–4
1Jackson Merrill homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
1Manny Machado homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














