D-backs at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyler Wade scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randal Grichuk homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Corbin Carroll scores. (inning 9) — -71% D-backs
9Manny Machado homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyler Wade scores.8–10
9Jurickson Profar homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.8–8
9Randal Grichuk homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Corbin Carroll scores.8–7
9Alek Thomas hits a grand slam (2) to right center field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Gabriel Moreno scores. Jake McCarthy scores.6–7
6Kyle Higashioka homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Bryce Johnson scores.2–7
4Kyle Higashioka singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. David Peralta scores.2–5
4David Peralta doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jackson Merrill scores.2–4
4Jackson Merrill triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














