Mariners at Padres
Last play · David Peralta lines out to shortstop J. P. Crawford.
Win probability
Padres0%
SEA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 0 SD
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -145
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Polanco reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Luis Arraez. Cal Raleigh scores. (inning 2) — -15% Mariners
4Jorge Polanco singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Luke Raley scores. Ty France to 3rd.2–0
2Jorge Polanco reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Luis Arraez. Cal Raleigh scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














