Mariners at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado grounds into a double play, third baseman Josh Rojas to second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Ty France. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd. Manny Machado out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres0%
SEA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 0 SD
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -145
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 3) — -14% Mariners
9Victor Robles doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Cal Raleigh scores.8–3
8Kyle Higashioka homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. David Peralta scores.7–3
7Jake Cronenworth homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.7–1
7Cal Raleigh homers (17) on a line drive to left field. Julio Rodríguez scores.7–0
5Julio Rodríguez homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
3Cal Raleigh homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Julio Rodríguez scores.4–0
2Ty France doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Jorge Polanco scores.2–0
1Julio Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. J.P. Crawford scores. Mitch Garver to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














