Braves at Padres
Last play · Sean Murphy grounds out, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
ATL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Peralta hits a ground-rule double (4) on a line drive down the left-field line. Donovan Solano scores. (inning 2) — +10% Padres
8Manny Machado homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
6David Peralta singles on a line drive to right fielder Adam Duvall. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.0–3
5Luis Arraez doubles (17) on a line drive to right fielder Adam Duvall. Tyler Wade scores.0–2
2David Peralta hits a ground-rule double (4) on a line drive down the left-field line. Donovan Solano scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














