Braves at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
ATL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 1 SD
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Padres favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Orlando Arcia homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Travis d'Arnaud scores. (inning 5) — -20% Braves
9Marcell Ozuna homers (26) on a fly ball to center field.6–1
8Austin Riley out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder David Peralta. Orlando Arcia scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.5–1
5Orlando Arcia homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Travis d'Arnaud scores.4–1
5Travis d'Arnaud singles on a ground ball to right fielder David Peralta. Adam Duvall scores.2–1
5Marcell Ozuna homers (25) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
4Manny Machado doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adam Duvall. Jake Cronenworth scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














