Pirates at Padres
Last play · Bryan Reynolds lines out sharply to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Padres100%
PIT 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 0 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51% · hold 6.9%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+205 / -250
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Jurickson Profar scores. (inning 7) — +21% Padres
9Andrew McCutchen singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Johnson, deflected by first baseman Jake Cronenworth. Bryan De La Cruz scores.1–2
8Kyle Higashioka out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Bryce Johnson scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.0–2
7Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Jurickson Profar scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
