Pirates at Padres
Last play · Bryan De La Cruz grounds out, second baseman Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Win probability
Padres100%
PIT 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Peralta homers (5) on a line drive to right center field. (inning 5) — +16% Padres
8Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ji Hwan Bae, deflected by shortstop Oneil Cruz. Luis Arraez scores.0–3
5David Peralta homers (5) on a line drive to right center field.0–2
1Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ji Hwan Bae. Luis Arraez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
