Pirates at Padres
Last play · Connor Joe called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
PIT 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 8 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Jurickson Profar scores. (inning 1) — +24% Padres
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Bryan De La Cruz scores. Michael A. Taylor to 3rd. Yasmani Grandal to 2nd.2–8
6Joey Bart homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–8
3David Peralta homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores.0–8
3Jackson Merrill triples (5) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado scores.0–6
2Luis Arraez doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Tyler Wade scores.0–4
1Jake Cronenworth homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Jurickson Profar scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
