Twins at Padres
Last play · Jose Miranda grounds out, shortstop Tyler Wade to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Padres favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Austin Martin. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 3) — +27% Padres
9Christian Vázquez singles on a sharp ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Edouard Julien scores.3–5
3Jackson Merrill doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Austin Martin. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.2–5
2Willi Castro grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Xander Bogaerts. Edouard Julien scores. Christian Vázquez to 3rd. Austin Martin out at 2nd. Willi Castro to 1st.2–2
1Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Jurickson Profar scores.1–2
1Jake Cronenworth grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman Carlos Santana. Luis Arraez scores. Jurickson Profar to 2nd.1–1
1Matt Wallner doubles (11) on a ground ball to right fielder David Peralta. Trevor Larnach scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
