Mets at Padres
Last play · Mark Vientos called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Higashioka homers (15) on a line drive to left field. David Peralta scores. (inning 2) — +16% Padres
8Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Tyler Wade scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.0–7
3Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Kyle Higashioka scores.0–6
3Kyle Higashioka doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jeff McNeil. Jackson Merrill scores.0–5
2Jake Cronenworth singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Mason McCoy scores.0–4
2Kyle Higashioka homers (15) on a line drive to left field. David Peralta scores.0–3
1Luis Arraez homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
