Mets at Padres
Last play · David Peralta strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
NYM 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 1 SD
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor hits a grand slam (26) to right center field. Starling Marte scores. Francisco Alvarez scores. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 4) — -30% Mets
8Harrison Bader homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.7–1
7Francisco Lindor homers (27) on a line drive to left field.6–1
5Luis Arraez grounds out, third baseman Mark Vientos to first baseman Pete Alonso. Kyle Higashioka scores. Bryce Johnson to 3rd. Mason McCoy to 2nd.5–1
4Francisco Lindor hits a grand slam (26) to right center field. Starling Marte scores. Francisco Alvarez scores. Jeff McNeil scores.5–0
1Pete Alonso doubles (29) on a ground ball to shortstop Mason McCoy. Mark Vientos scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
