Mets at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 SD
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (21) on a line drive to right field. Mason McCoy scores. (inning 8) — +45% Padres
9Jackson Merrill homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
8Jurickson Profar homers (21) on a line drive to right field. Mason McCoy scores.2–2
7Mark Vientos homers (21) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
4J.D. Martinez homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
