Twins at Padres
Last play · Luis Arraez flies out to right fielder Matt Wallner.
Win probability
Padres0%
MIN 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 10 – 1 SD
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 39.8% · hold 6.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Padres favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Martin doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Edouard Julien scores. Christian Vázquez scores. (inning 4) — -21% Twins
9Manuel Margot singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Wade. Edouard Julien scores.11–4
8Jackson Merrill homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Bryce Johnson scores.10–4
8Bryce Johnson singles on a line drive to center fielder Manuel Margot. Jake Cronenworth scores.10–2
5Donovan Solano homers (6) on a line drive to left center field.10–1
5Trevor Larnach singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Austin Martin scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.10–0
5Austin Martin doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Edouard Julien scores.9–0
4Matt Wallner homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Trevor Larnach scores. Royce Lewis scores.8–0
4Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Willi Castro scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
