Twins at Padres
Last play · Trevor Larnach strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 1 SD
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 39.8% · hold 6.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Padres favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Donovan Solano scores. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 8) — +73% Padres
8Xander Bogaerts doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Austin Martin. Jake Cronenworth scores.5–7
8Jurickson Profar homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Donovan Solano scores. Luis Arraez scores.5–6
8Christian Vázquez singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Royce Lewis scores. Carlos Santana scores. Ryan Jeffers out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Jurickson Profar to third baseman Manny Machado. Christian Vázquez to 2nd.5–3
7Manny Machado homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Cronenworth scores.3–3
5Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Max Kepler scores. Austin Martin out at home. Manuel Margot to 2nd. Austin Martin out at home, pitcher Martín Pérez to catcher Luis Campusano to third baseman Manny Machado.3–1
4Ryan Jeffers homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Carlos Santana scores.2–1
2David Peralta singles on a ground ball to center fielder Austin Martin. Jackson Merrill scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
