Astros at Mariners
Last play · Mitch Haniger grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman José Abreu.
Win probability
Mariners0%
HOU 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 0 SEA
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (6) on a line drive to left field. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 4) — -26% Astros
6Victor Caratini grounds into a force out, second baseman Dylan Moore to shortstop J. P. Crawford. Alex Bregman scores. Jake Meyers out at 2nd. Victor Caratini to 1st.4–0
5Victor Caratini homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.3–0
4Alex Bregman homers (6) on a line drive to left field. Kyle Tucker scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
