Blue Jays at Mariners
Last play · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out, second baseman Dylan Moore to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TOR 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Mariners favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 3) — +23% Mariners
6Kevin Kiermaier homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
3Luke Raley doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














