Astros at Mariners
Last play · Joey Loperfido strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
HOU 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Jorge Polanco scores. Mitch Haniger scores. (inning 6) — +21% Mariners
8Chas McCormick singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Robles. Yordan Alvarez scores.4–6
7Jeremy Peña homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.3–6
6Luke Raley homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Jorge Polanco scores. Mitch Haniger scores.2–6
6Yordan Alvarez triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Dylan Moore, deflected by center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Mauricio Dubón scores.2–3
4Jorge Polanco homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
4Yordan Alvarez homers (20) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Dylan Moore triples (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Josh Rojas scores. Luke Raley scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














