Astros at Mariners
Last play · Jorge Polanco lines out to left fielder Joey Loperfido.
Win probability
Mariners0%
HOU 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 0 SEA
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mariners favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Jose Altuve scores. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd. (inning 3) — -21% Astros
3Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Jose Altuve scores. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.3–0
3Jose Altuve singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Josh Rojas. Trey Cabbage scores. Throwing error by third baseman Josh Rojas.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














