Mets at Mariners
Last play · Pete Alonso grounds out, shortstop Leo Rivas to first baseman Justin Turner.
Win probability
Mariners100%
NYM 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 3 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Mariners favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Turner doubles (18) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 1) — +9% Mariners
7Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.0–4
1Mitch Haniger singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Justin Turner scores.0–3
1Justin Turner doubles (18) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyrone Taylor. Randy Arozarena scores.0–2
1Randy Arozarena doubles (24) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Victor Robles scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
