Rays at Mariners
Last play · Brandon Lowe grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Luke Raley.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TB 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
5.5
opened 5.5
fair over 34.8% · hold 8.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-6000 / +2000
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores. Cal Raleigh scores. (inning 3) — +27% Mariners
4Leo Rivas singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Josh Rojas scores.1–5
3Randy Arozarena homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores. Cal Raleigh scores.1–4
2Jorge Polanco homers (13) on a line drive to right field.1–1
2Josh Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
