Rays at Mariners
Last play · José Caballero pops out to second baseman Jorge Polanco.
Win probability
Mariners100%
TB 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Mariners favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Robles homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Dylan Moore scores. (inning 5) — +25% Mariners
8Randy Arozarena homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.2–6
6Dylan Carlson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Brandon Lowe scores. Christopher Morel to 3rd.2–5
5Julio Rodríguez homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. J.P. Crawford scores.1–5
5Victor Robles homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Dylan Moore scores.1–3
2Luke Raley out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Randy Arozarena scores.1–1
2Josh Lowe homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
