Mets at Cardinals
Last play · Alec Burleson strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
NYM 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 3 STL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Cardinals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Jeff McNeil scores. Tomás Nido scores. (inning 5) — -34% Mets
9Lars Nootbaar homers (2) on a line drive to center field.7–5
9Pete Alonso homers (9) on a line drive to left center field.7–4
6Alec Burleson homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.6–4
5J.D. Martinez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Siani. Pete Alonso scores.6–3
5Pete Alonso doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Siani. Starling Marte scores. Francisco Lindor scores.5–3
5Brandon Nimmo homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Jeff McNeil scores. Tomás Nido scores.3–3
1Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Willson Contreras scores.0–3
1Nolan Arenado out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder DJ Stewart. Lars Nootbaar scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








