Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Christopher Morel grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Nolan Gorman. Cody Bellinger out at 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 2 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Tauchman. Nolan Gorman scores. Dylan Carlson scores. (inning 8) — +34% Cardinals
9Cody Bellinger singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Nick Madrigal scores. Mike Tauchman to 3rd.6–7
9Mike Tauchman singles on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Dansby Swanson scores. Nick Madrigal to 2nd.5–7
8Lars Nootbaar triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Brendan Donovan scores.4–7
8Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Tauchman. Nolan Gorman scores. Dylan Carlson scores.4–6
8Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Matt Carpenter singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Alec Burleson scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd. Matt Carpenter to 2nd.4–4
7Patrick Wisdom doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Michael Busch scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.4–3
6Masyn Winn doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Tauchman. Nolan Gorman scores.3–3
4Michael Busch singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Siani. Nico Hoerner scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
