Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Christopher Morel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 3 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Willson Contreras scores. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd. (inning 8) — +61% Cardinals
8Nolan Arenado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Willson Contreras scores. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.4–5
2Alec Burleson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nolan Gorman scores.4–3
2Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Nico Hoerner scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.4–2
2Nico Hoerner singles on a fly ball to center fielder Lars Nootbaar. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.3–2
2Miguel Amaya homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Dansby Swanson scores.2–2
1Willson Contreras homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Masyn Winn homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














