Pirates at Cardinals
Last play · Bryan Reynolds grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
PIT 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 3 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brendan Donovan homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +26% Cardinals
6Brendan Donovan homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
5Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brendan Donovan. Yasmani Grandal scores. Michael A. Taylor scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.3–3
5Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to pitcher Lance Lynn. Jack Suwinski scores. Yasmani Grandal to 3rd. Michael A. Taylor to 2nd.1–3
4Pedro Pagés singles on a ground ball to right fielder Edward Olivares. José Fermín scores.0–3
3Paul Goldschmidt homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Masyn Winn scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














