Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Pete Crow-Armstrong flies out to left fielder Brendan Donovan.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 11 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Siani scores. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 1) — +16% Cardinals
9Patrick Wisdom homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.3–11
4Nolan Gorman doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Nolan Arenado scores.2–11
4Miles Mastrobuoni out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dylan Carlson. Ian Happ scores.2–10
2Pedro Pagés singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nolan Arenado scores. Brendan Donovan out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to third baseman Miles Mastrobuoni.1–10
1Alec Burleson homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Michael Siani scores. Masyn Winn scores.1–9
1Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nolan Arenado scores. Brendan Donovan scores. Michael Siani to 3rd.1–6
1Michael Siani hit by pitch. Lars Nootbaar scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Brendan Donovan to 2nd.1–4
1Cubs challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Brendan Donovan reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Hayden Wesneski. Willson Contreras scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














