Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Willson Contreras grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 2 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pedro Pagés singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Brendan Donovan scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Pedro Pagés out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Ian Happ to second baseman Nico Hoerner. (inning 2) — +20% Cardinals
8Christopher Morel homers (18) on a fly ball to left field.8–3
8Ian Happ homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
6Alec Burleson homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.6–3
6Christopher Morel homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Seiya Suzuki scores.6–2
5Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
5Tomás Nido homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
3Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nolan Gorman. Nico Hoerner scores.2–2
3Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














