Rays at Cardinals
Last play · Christopher Morel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
TB 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 5 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado doubles (17) on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Alec Burleson scores. Willson Contreras scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cardinals
6José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Josh Lowe scores. Dylan Carlson to 3rd. Jose Siri to 2nd.2–5
4Alec Burleson doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn scores.1–5
3Nolan Arenado doubles (17) on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Alec Burleson scores. Willson Contreras scores.1–3
3Brandon Lowe grounds into a force out, pitcher Erick Fedde to shortstop Masyn Winn. Alex Jackson scores. Yandy Díaz out at 2nd. Brandon Lowe to 1st.1–1
1Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe, deflected by pitcher Taj Bradley. Masyn Winn scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
