Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Donovan Solano grounds out sharply, second baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (20) on a line drive to center field. (inning 5) — -13% Padres
8Iván Herrera singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Lars Nootbaar scores.1–4
6Masyn Winn homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
5Jackson Merrill homers (20) on a line drive to center field.1–2
3Paul Goldschmidt doubles (21) on a fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Nolan Arenado scores.0–2
3Luken Baker grounds out, shortstop Tyler Wade to first baseman Luis Arraez. Alec Burleson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
