Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Nolan Arenado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Masyn Winn scores. Victor Scott II to 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Higashioka homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — -26% Padres
9Nolan Arenado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Masyn Winn scores. Victor Scott II to 2nd.3–4
8Kyle Higashioka homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
4Paul Goldschmidt singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Luken Baker scores.2–3
4Brendan Donovan grounds out, shortstop Mason McCoy to first baseman Jake Cronenworth. Nolan Arenado scores. Luken Baker to 3rd.2–2
4Luken Baker doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Alec Burleson scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.2–1
1Xander Bogaerts strikes out swinging. Manny Machado steals (8) 2nd base. Jake Cronenworth steals (4) home.2–0
1Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Lars Nootbaar. Luis Arraez scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
