Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Nolan Arenado grounds out, shortstop Mason McCoy to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SD 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 2 STL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 1) — -22% Padres
9Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Masyn Winn scores.7–4
7Alec Burleson hits a ground-rule double (17) on a line drive to right field. Masyn Winn scores.7–3
5Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Manny Machado scores.7–2
5Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Jake Cronenworth scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.6–2
5Manny Machado doubles (25) on a line drive to left fielder Alec Burleson. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.5–2
4Matt Carpenter out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Iván Herrera scores.4–2
3Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alec Burleson. Jurickson Profar scores. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 2nd.4–1
2Paul Goldschmidt singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brendan Donovan scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
