Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Nolan Arenado grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SD 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 5 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul Goldschmidt homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Lars Nootbaar scores. (inning 5) — +30% Cardinals
9Jurickson Profar flies out to center fielder Victor Scott II.7–5
7Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Luis Arraez scores.6–5
7Jurickson Profar out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Mason McCoy scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.5–5
5Paul Goldschmidt homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Lars Nootbaar scores.4–5
5Lars Nootbaar singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brendan Donovan scores.4–3
2Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alec Burleson. Luis Campusano scores.4–2
2Mason McCoy grounds out, second baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. David Peralta scores. Luis Campusano to 2nd.3–2
2Luis Campusano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jackson Merrill scores. David Peralta to 3rd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
