Mets at Rays
Last play · DJ Stewart grounds out sharply, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Yandy Díaz.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYM 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 1 TB
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Rays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Shenton walks. Richie Palacios scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Rays
8José Caballero walks. Isaac Paredes scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Austin Shenton to 2nd.1–3
8Austin Shenton walks. Richie Palacios scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.1–2
1Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Yandy Díaz scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd.1–1
1Starling Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Brandon Nimmo scores. Starling Marte to 2nd. Fielding error by right fielder Jonny DeLuca.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








