Cubs at Rays
Last play · Brandon Lowe homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Amed Rosario scores. José Caballero scores.
Win probability
Rays100%
CHC 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 0 TB
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Rays favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Richie Palacios scores. Amed Rosario to 2nd. (inning 9) — +42% Rays
9Brandon Lowe homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Amed Rosario scores. José Caballero scores.2–5
9José Caballero singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Richie Palacios scores. Amed Rosario to 2nd.2–2
7Yandy Díaz walks.2–1
6David Bote singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jose Siri. Christopher Morel scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd.2–0
4Christopher Morel homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














