Nationals at Rays
Last play · Ildemaro Vargas grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Rays100%
WSH 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Rays favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Jonny DeLuca scores. (inning 2) — +16% Rays
7Randy Arozarena homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.0–5
4Jose Siri out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Isaac Paredes scores.0–4
2José Caballero homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Jonny DeLuca scores.0–3
2Isaac Paredes homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














