Marlins at Rays
Last play · Taylor Walls strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
MIA 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 2 TB
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+215 / -265
Rays favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Ali Sánchez scores. (inning 3) — -26% Marlins
7Xavier Edwards singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Nick Gordon scores. Vidal Bruján scores. Ali Sánchez to 3rd.6–2
3Jake Burger homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Ali Sánchez scores.4–2
3Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Vidal Bruján scores.2–2
2Jonny DeLuca triples (2) on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Richie Palacios scores.1–2
2Jonah Bride homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Christopher Morel homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
