Reds at Rays
Last play · Jeimer Candelario grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Rays100%
CIN 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Rays favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Jackson homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +16% Rays
5Brandon Lowe doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Will Benson. Amed Rosario scores.0–4
5Yandy Díaz homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
5Alex Jackson homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
2Reds challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Jose Siri reaches on a fielder's choice out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to third baseman Noelvi Marte. Curtis Mead scores. Jonny DeLuca out at 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














