Astros at Rays
Last play · Josh Lowe grounds out, first baseman Yainer Diaz to pitcher Josh Hader.
Win probability
Rays0%
HOU 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 1 TB
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Rays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -16% Astros
8Brandon Lowe grounds out to first baseman Yainer Diaz. Alex Jackson scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd. Dylan Carlson to 2nd.3–2
6Jeremy Peña homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
5Alex Bregman homers (19) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
3Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.1–1
2Josh Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. José Caballero scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
