Padres at Rays
Last play · Christopher Morel flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
Win probability
Rays0%
SD 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 10 – 4 TB
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Rays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Walls scores. (inning 2) — +17% Rays
9Donovan Solano singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Bryce Johnson scores. Luis Campusano scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.13–5
9Xander Bogaerts homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.11–5
8Jonathan Aranda grounds out, shortstop Mason McCoy to first baseman Jake Cronenworth. Taylor Walls scores. Alex Jackson to 3rd.10–5
4David Peralta homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Xander Bogaerts scores.10–4
3Donovan Solano walks. David Peralta scores. Luis Campusano to 3rd. Jurickson Profar to 2nd.8–4
2Yandy Díaz homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Taylor Walls scores.7–4
2Taylor Walls singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Christopher Morel scores. Jonny DeLuca scores. Taylor Walls to 2nd.7–2
2Manny Machado homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.7–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
