Padres at Rays
SD4–
TB11Last play · Rays challenged (force play), call on the field was overturned: Manny Machado grounds into a force out, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Christopher Morel. Jake Cronenworth out at 2nd.
Win probability
Rays100%
SD 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 9 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Rays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Christopher Morel scores. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 2) — +26% Rays
8José Caballero grounds out softly, pitcher Alek Jacob to first baseman Jake Cronenworth. Josh Lowe scores.4–11
8Josh Lowe triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brandon Lowe scores.4–10
7Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Josh Lowe. Mason McCoy scores.4–9
7Mason McCoy doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Josh Lowe, deflected by third baseman Junior Caminero. Luis Campusano scores.3–9
5Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to right fielder David Peralta. Jonathan Aranda scores.2–9
4Ben Rortvedt singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder David Peralta. Josh Lowe scores. José Caballero to 3rd.2–8
4José Caballero singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Christopher Morel scores. Brandon Lowe scores. Josh Lowe to 2nd.2–7
2Junior Caminero homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Christopher Morel scores. Brandon Lowe scores.2–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.