Padres at Rangers
Last play · Eguy Rosario grounds out, third baseman Jonathan Ornelas to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SD 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 6 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Rangers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Smith scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rangers
6Jonathan Ornelas doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Leody Taveras scores.0–7
4Marcus Semien singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Leody Taveras scores.0–6
3Nathaniel Lowe homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Josh Smith scores.0–5
2Leody Taveras doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jonah Heim scores.0–3
1Nathaniel Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Smith scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














