Padres at Rangers
Last play · Marcus Semien grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Rangers0%
SD 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 4 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Rangers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Peralta homers (1) on a line drive to center field. Donovan Solano scores. (inning 7) — -31% Padres
7David Peralta homers (1) on a line drive to center field. Donovan Solano scores.6–4
6Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Ha-Seong Kim scores.4–4
5Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to third baseman Josh Smith. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.3–4
4Jonah Heim out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Wyatt Langford scores.2–4
3Josh Smith doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Corey Seager scores.2–3
3Corey Seager doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Marcus Semien scores.2–2
3Leody Taveras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jonah Heim scores.2–1
3Manny Machado homers (11) on a line drive to left center field. Jake Cronenworth scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














