Astros at Rangers
Last play · Josh Smith homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Adolis García scores.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 1 TEX
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Smith homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Adolis García scores. (inning 10) — +39% Rangers
10Josh Smith homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Adolis García scores.3–4
10Jeremy Peña hit by pitch. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.3–2
8Corey Seager homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
8Jeremy Peña singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Josh Jung. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.2–1
5Leody Taveras out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chas McCormick. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Throwing error by left fielder Chas McCormick.1–1
3Alex Bregman homers (15) on a line drive to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
