Pirates at Rangers
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers100%
PIT 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 4 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rangers favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Triolo homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Joey Bart scores. Billy McKinney scores. (inning 4) — -25% Pirates
4Jared Triolo homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Joey Bart scores. Billy McKinney scores.3–4
3Corey Seager homers (28) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonah Heim scores. Marcus Semien scores.0–4
1Corey Seager homers (27) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
